Northwest Indian Law & Business Advisor : Northwest Indian & Tribal Lawyer & Attorney : Williams Kastner Law Firm : Tacoma, Seattle, Portland

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The next ten months will be very interesting as Congress deliberates after the President’s State of the Union Address. The balance of power has been impacted in the Senate as the Democrats hang on to a 59-seat majority with a Republican margin of 41 seats. The mid-term elections for Congress are scheduled for November 2010 and in the meantime Congress will address the federal budget, debate any jobs related policiesand determine the future of the health care reform bill. The position and the discussion that will ensue during the next ten legislative months will likely set the tone and agenda for issues which will be used by voters in determining their elected officials. The following information is a brief synopsis of a few of the key gubernatorial and congressional races in the western United States.

Washington

There is no scheduled gubernatorial race for Washington state in 2010 as current Governor Christine Gregoire’s term does not expireuntil 2012. In the Senate race, Senator Patty Murray is seeking reelection in 2010 and has enjoyed broad support from Democratic voters in the state. Sean Salazar, a chiropractor, and Wayne Glover, a trucker, have announced that they will challenge Senator Murray in the upcoming election on the Republican ticket. Some Republicans areintending to mount a serious challenge to Senator Murray by mobilizing voter turn-out and by encouraging high profile candidates such as Attorney General Rob McKenna or 8th Congressional District Representative Dave Reichert to enter the race.

Idaho

The Republican incumbent Governor C.L. “Butch” Otter is set to mount a reelection campaign in 2010 on favorable polling numbers. The challenger, Keith Allred, is a political novice when it comes to electoral politics and will face an electorate that is known for supporting conservative, Republican candidates. In the Senate, Senator Mike Crapo is seeking reelection in 2010 and has yet to see a serious challenge from the Democrats in Idaho.

Oregon

Former Governor John Kitzhaber is a favored candidate on the Democratic side of the ticket and he faces a challenge in the primary by former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. The Republicans have several candidates which include Allen Alley, Bill Sizemore, and former State Senator John Lim. In Oregon’s Senate race, Senator Ron Wyden is seeking reelection in a heavily leaning Democratic state. Some Republican pundits have suggested that former Senator Gordon Smith would be a strong candidate to challenge Senator Wyden.

California

Jerry Brown has re-surfaced, again, as the Democratic candidate for Governor in the nation’s most populous state. The Republicans have some serious challengers among their candidates which include former eBay CEO Meg Ryan and State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Senator Barbara Boxer is seeking reelection for the U.S. Senate and faces a challenge from several high profile Republicans. Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett Packard; State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore; and former U.S. Representative Tom Campbell have all surfaced seeking the U.S. Senate seat for the Republicans.
 

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On January 19, 2010, there was a special election held in Massachusetts for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the death of former Senator Edward M. Kennedy. The campaign for the vacant seat was marked by fierce political fighting within the Democratic party in order to craft a message which resonated with voters who are currently facing huge economic challenges, a burgeoning federal deficit, and widespread disagreement over the Obama Administration’s strategy to enact health care reform. The Republican party focused upon a candidate and a campaign which leveraged on voter anger at large Wall Street bail outs, high rates of unemployment, and potentially large deficit spending to accomplish health care reforms. Senator-elect Brown gathered 51.9% of the vote compared with the 47.1% accumulated by the Democratic challenger Martha Coakley. The election attracted voter turnout to the tune of 2.25 million people, which was about 73% of the total voters who turned out in the 2008 presidential election. The consequences of this election are significant, as the Democratic Party has lost its supermajority of 60 seats in the U.S. Senate, an advantage that allowed votes to be conducted on a party line basis and limited Republican filibusters.

The legislative agenda adopted by the Democratic leaders in Congress and the President is now largely at risk of being irrelevant in the remainder of the Congressional session leading up to mid-term elections in November 2010. The Administration and Democratic members of Congress will now likely be forced to appeal to moderate Republicans in the hopes of passing any legislation designed to address a wide range of issues including job creation, financial industry regulations and health care. For the time being, Democratic leaders have insisted that it is their intent to move the health care reform measure through Congress quickly. Some members of the House have indicated that they will adopt the Senate version of the bill and attempt to gather the 218 votes needed to clear the House. In order to move the House-passed bill, the Obama Administration and Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) would have to pass a corrections bill through Congress by using budget reconciliation procedures. Budget reconciliation procedures only require 51 votes to pass a bill.

The health care reform debate may begin anew if the House cannot agree to adopt and pass the Senate version of the bill. The focus of the Administration and Congress may subtly shift to engaging on public policy debates to shore up an ailing economy and provide a responsive set of policy initiatives designed to increase jobs. The economic downturn which has resulted in sustained unemployment at levels not seen since the Great Depression is only adding to the desire of many politicians seeking reelection in 2010 to address employment and job issues. The upcoming State of the Union Address by the President will likely be the Democrats first opportunity to unveil any new economic and legislative initiatives. The Republican Party may be poised to gather more seats in Congress in the 2010 elections by focusing upon progressive policies tailored to improve the economy and spearheading efforts to ensure that Americans return to the workplace at a higher pace.