Northwest Indian Law & Business Advisor : Northwest Indian & Tribal Lawyer & Attorney : Williams Kastner Law Firm : Tacoma, Seattle, Portland

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Washington Senate campaign launches a Dash for Cash. With the entrance of Dino Rossi as the Republican candidate into Washington state’s Senate race against incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray on May 26, the ground has been set for the ensuing battle which will be influenced on a national level. The Democrats and Republicans both view the Washington Senate campaign as a skirmish where the balance of power may shift away from the Democratic majority in Congress. Both parties have observed that the mood of this year’s electorate is shaped by mounting budget deficits, lackadaisical employment numbers and an administration which is struggling to cobble together a unified strategy to address the Gulf Coast oil debacle. Campaign contributions will also flavor the tone, pace and results of this fall’s elections because of the decision reached by the Supreme Court when its verdict was announced in the Citizens United v. FEC case. In the Citizens United decision, the Supreme Court overruled the ban which prevented corporations from using funds from their general treasury to make independent expenditures and electioneering communications in federal elections.

The Supreme Court determined that a ban based upon the identity of the speaker was impermissible because it sought to restrain political speech without a justifiably compelling interest, particularly when it involved a prohibition directly levied on corporate political speech. After the decision, the Federal Election Commission stated that it would not enforce statutory provisions or its regulations that had prohibited corporations or labor organizations from making independent expenditures and electioneering communications. The Court’s decision and the FEC’s position together mean that corporations and labor organizations are free to pay for political tools essential for candidates reaching and persuading the electorate via media communications. This freedom to pay for communications may prove to be the difference between the electorate choosing Dino Rossi or Patty Murray to represent Washington in the U.S. Senate for the next six years.

In a recent statement, it was declared that the Rossi campaign had raised $600,000 from individual donors in the wake of his entrance into the race on May 26. The figure quoted by the Rossi campaign is dwarfed by the $5.47 million on hand for the Murray campaign as of the last report filed with the FEC at the end of March 2010. Both the Rossi and the Murray campaigns will likely experience a surge in donations from individuals, corporations and labor organizations as the end of the race gets closer, the rhetoric gets deeper, and the price of political ads gets steeper. The price tag for the 2010 election cycle in Washington State just went up and it will likely be influenced by out-of-state donors as the share of in-state donors reaches contribution limits. The voice that interested parties will exercise in the electoral process is directly attributable to the impact that the funding of independent expenditures and electioneering communications have upon a candidate’s cause.
 

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The next ten months will be very interesting as Congress deliberates after the President’s State of the Union Address. The balance of power has been impacted in the Senate as the Democrats hang on to a 59-seat majority with a Republican margin of 41 seats. The mid-term elections for Congress are scheduled for November 2010 and in the meantime Congress will address the federal budget, debate any jobs related policiesand determine the future of the health care reform bill. The position and the discussion that will ensue during the next ten legislative months will likely set the tone and agenda for issues which will be used by voters in determining their elected officials. The following information is a brief synopsis of a few of the key gubernatorial and congressional races in the western United States.

Washington

There is no scheduled gubernatorial race for Washington state in 2010 as current Governor Christine Gregoire’s term does not expireuntil 2012. In the Senate race, Senator Patty Murray is seeking reelection in 2010 and has enjoyed broad support from Democratic voters in the state. Sean Salazar, a chiropractor, and Wayne Glover, a trucker, have announced that they will challenge Senator Murray in the upcoming election on the Republican ticket. Some Republicans areintending to mount a serious challenge to Senator Murray by mobilizing voter turn-out and by encouraging high profile candidates such as Attorney General Rob McKenna or 8th Congressional District Representative Dave Reichert to enter the race.

Idaho

The Republican incumbent Governor C.L. “Butch” Otter is set to mount a reelection campaign in 2010 on favorable polling numbers. The challenger, Keith Allred, is a political novice when it comes to electoral politics and will face an electorate that is known for supporting conservative, Republican candidates. In the Senate, Senator Mike Crapo is seeking reelection in 2010 and has yet to see a serious challenge from the Democrats in Idaho.

Oregon

Former Governor John Kitzhaber is a favored candidate on the Democratic side of the ticket and he faces a challenge in the primary by former Secretary of State Bill Bradbury. The Republicans have several candidates which include Allen Alley, Bill Sizemore, and former State Senator John Lim. In Oregon’s Senate race, Senator Ron Wyden is seeking reelection in a heavily leaning Democratic state. Some Republican pundits have suggested that former Senator Gordon Smith would be a strong candidate to challenge Senator Wyden.

California

Jerry Brown has re-surfaced, again, as the Democratic candidate for Governor in the nation’s most populous state. The Republicans have some serious challengers among their candidates which include former eBay CEO Meg Ryan and State Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. Senator Barbara Boxer is seeking reelection for the U.S. Senate and faces a challenge from several high profile Republicans. Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett Packard; State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore; and former U.S. Representative Tom Campbell have all surfaced seeking the U.S. Senate seat for the Republicans.
 

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On January 19, 2010, there was a special election held in Massachusetts for the U.S. Senate seat vacated by the death of former Senator Edward M. Kennedy. The campaign for the vacant seat was marked by fierce political fighting within the Democratic party in order to craft a message which resonated with voters who are currently facing huge economic challenges, a burgeoning federal deficit, and widespread disagreement over the Obama Administration’s strategy to enact health care reform. The Republican party focused upon a candidate and a campaign which leveraged on voter anger at large Wall Street bail outs, high rates of unemployment, and potentially large deficit spending to accomplish health care reforms. Senator-elect Brown gathered 51.9% of the vote compared with the 47.1% accumulated by the Democratic challenger Martha Coakley. The election attracted voter turnout to the tune of 2.25 million people, which was about 73% of the total voters who turned out in the 2008 presidential election. The consequences of this election are significant, as the Democratic Party has lost its supermajority of 60 seats in the U.S. Senate, an advantage that allowed votes to be conducted on a party line basis and limited Republican filibusters.

The legislative agenda adopted by the Democratic leaders in Congress and the President is now largely at risk of being irrelevant in the remainder of the Congressional session leading up to mid-term elections in November 2010. The Administration and Democratic members of Congress will now likely be forced to appeal to moderate Republicans in the hopes of passing any legislation designed to address a wide range of issues including job creation, financial industry regulations and health care. For the time being, Democratic leaders have insisted that it is their intent to move the health care reform measure through Congress quickly. Some members of the House have indicated that they will adopt the Senate version of the bill and attempt to gather the 218 votes needed to clear the House. In order to move the House-passed bill, the Obama Administration and Senate Majority Leader Reid (D-NV) would have to pass a corrections bill through Congress by using budget reconciliation procedures. Budget reconciliation procedures only require 51 votes to pass a bill.

The health care reform debate may begin anew if the House cannot agree to adopt and pass the Senate version of the bill. The focus of the Administration and Congress may subtly shift to engaging on public policy debates to shore up an ailing economy and provide a responsive set of policy initiatives designed to increase jobs. The economic downturn which has resulted in sustained unemployment at levels not seen since the Great Depression is only adding to the desire of many politicians seeking reelection in 2010 to address employment and job issues. The upcoming State of the Union Address by the President will likely be the Democrats first opportunity to unveil any new economic and legislative initiatives. The Republican Party may be poised to gather more seats in Congress in the 2010 elections by focusing upon progressive policies tailored to improve the economy and spearheading efforts to ensure that Americans return to the workplace at a higher pace.